Chaos and Hysteria of Climate Change

As the estimated cost of measures proposed by politicians to "combat global warming" soars ever higher - such as the International Energy Council's $45 trillion - "fighting climate change" has become the single most expensive item on the world's political agenda.

As Senators Obama and McCain vie with the leaders of the European Union to promise 50, 60, even 80 per cent cuts in "carbon emissions", it is clear that to realise even half their imaginary targets would necessitate a dramatic change in how we all live, and a drastic reduction in living standards.

All this makes it rather important to know just why our politicians have come to believe that global warming is the most serious challenge confronting mankind, and just how reliable is the evidence for the theory on which their policies are based.

Scientists have become more certain that humans are responsible for a large part of global warming. Estimates of temperature increases, heat waves, and cold waves are all nearly identical to those produced six years ago.

From about 1450 to 1850, Earth passed through what is called the Little Ice Age (Some scientists place the start date as early as 1300 and the end date as late as 1890). During this period of renewed cold, alpine glaciers advanced in virtually all the world's mountain areas, and the Arctic islands' ice caps grew larger.nters became colder and summers cooler, though the effect on winters was generally greater. Worldwide, the climate change damaged many ecosystems. Floods, plague, and famine devastated Europe. Crops failed, especially in northern regions. In higher latitudes, great storms increasingly roiled the skies. A storm that hit southern England on December 7-8, 1703, blew down a lighthouse, wrecked houses, tossed ships onto land, and killed 8,000 people. Drought and flood often besieged the same areas.

Global warming will sink major European cities under water and bring about nuclear wars, famine, droughts and global rioting as desperate people search (and fight for) what little food, water and energy remains.

There are ominous signs that the earth's weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production - with serious political implications for just about every nation on earth. The drop in food production could begin quite soon. The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologist are hard-pressed to keep up with it.

The continued rapid cooling of the earth since WWII is in accord with the increase in global air pollution associated with industrialization, mechanization, urbanization and exploding population.

Catastrophe and chaos as unguided weapons with which forlornly to threaten society into behavioural change. climate change-induced causes of conflict are likely to be: degradation of freshwaters; decline in food production; increase in storm and flood disasters and environmentally-induced migration.

Climate change is a real and serious problem. But the problem with the recent media frenzy is that some seem to believe no new report or development is enough if it doesn't reveal more serious consequences.

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Phenomenon Floods and Drought

There are many pressures on water resources, including those arising from human activities. Additionally driving forces arise from the natural variability in water availability and climate change.Recent history has shown that extreme hydrological events as flood and droughts can create additional stress on water supplies essential for human and ecosystem health.

Climate change leads to increasing frequency of extreme weather events evident around the globe. Unusually high rain fall, which many scientists agree is due to climate change, is a significant cause of floods. On the other hand droughts are becoming longer, harder and more frequent.

Floods and droughts are the two important aspects of hydrological hazard. Floods usually result either from heavy precipitation (rain or snow) or from rapid snowmelt or glacier discharge (CliC). Droughts are caused by dry weather conditions in which evaporation exceeds the available surface water.

A flood is an overflow of water, an expanse of water submerging land, a deluge. Flooding and its impactsn are often influenced by a combination of natural factors and human interference. Floods are the most common natural desasters in Europe and, in term sof economic damage, the most costly ones. Major floods that used to happen only once in 100 years now take place every 10 or 20 years. Flooding can be disastrous. Houses can be destroyed, lives can be ruined, and wildlife threatened. Climate change is not the only cause of floods. Other ill-considered human activities play a key role as well. Upstream forests are able to soak up a lot of water, but if humans are destroying these areas, we increase the risk of floods.

A drought is an extended period where water availability falls below the statistical requirements for a region. Also drought is not a purely physical phenomenon, but an interplay between natural water availability and human demands for water supply. Since the demand for European water resources is increasing, also the pressure on water continues to grow and Europe is becoming increasingly vulnerable to the effects of periods without rainfall. Droughts are the prolonged absence of water in a specific area. Droughts kill a lot more people than floods because the effects are more prolonged. Droughts are always naturally caused, usually because changes in weather patterns greatly decrease the rainfall to an area. This is common in the southern edge of the Sahara desert, where there are usually extended periods of rainprovide the region with the water it needs for the year. However, it has become increasingly common for the rains to be very weak, or not come at all. A glaring example was a five year drought in the area from 1968-73. Today, the effects of global warming are seen as the Sahara expands due to these droughts.

Reducing the effects of flood and droughts (water disaster)
1. Disaster preparedness
The aim of disaster preparation is to be able to reduce the immediate mortality and morbidity with a better prepared, well equipped service. The preparation includes early warning systems for seasonal changes in climate, the ENSO, and risk of flood or drought, such as electronic information systems and satellites that can provide information over large regions and continents. Separate systems are needed to cater for the agricultural sector, cities and people in rural or remote communities. The public health infrastructure is particularly important for the immediate measures needed and for public information on reducing the health risks. Being prepared also means thorough disaster contingency plans, covering emergency housing, repairs, replacement of essential equipment and protection of the most vulnerable people in the community: the sick, the very young and the old. Improvement of water supply and sanitation systems is an important way of reducing the effects of a water disaster: countries with a good infrastructure for drainage and disposal of human waste and adequate water supply facilities have far fewer direct health problems during water-related disasters Sanitary inspections are an important tool to assess the water supply and sanitation facilities and these should be conducted systematically. The logistics of the predicted need for health and social services also need to be laid down in advance, including early warning systems to detect health effects. Planning should be on a regional, national and international level and include planning for climate change: as global warming and its water effects will increase the frequency of water disasters. Finally, public information and education can serve two purposes in preparing for disasters: ensuring early warnings to communities at risk; and giving information about how to conserve water and keep it safe from contamination.

2. Disaster mitigation
Once a disaster has occurred, or has been identified, all the measures in disaster preparedness will be needed and if not in place, outside help is probably needed. At the least, the mitigation efforts must include:
Emergency housing, especially after floods, but also if a drought has caused mass population movement in an attempt to find better water and food supplies.
Provision of emergency supplies of safe drinking water.
Emergency repairs to homes, drains and water supply and sanitation infrastructure.
Early warning systems to identify health effects and to detect rise in mosquito borne diseases, such as malaria, and diarrhoeal diseases, such as cholera. For such systems to be effective, a good public health information system is essential so that epidemiological trends can be monitored.

Both disaster preparedness and its mitigation require multisectoral cooperation and joint planning. Both need evaluation after a disaster to reduce the ill effects of later crises. While our world is never likely to be free of water disasters, there is much that can be done to minimise their health effects.

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Climate Change and World Food Production Security

There any significant change in climate on a global scale should impact local agriculture and thereby affect the world's food supply. Considerable study has gone into the questions of how farming might be affected in different regions, and by how much; and whether the net result may be harmful or beneficial. Overall, climate change, including global warming and increased climate variability, could result in a variety of impacts on agriculture. Some of these effects are biophysical, some are ecological, and some are economic.

Food security has been defined as "access by all people at all times to enough food for an active, healthy life" (World Bank, 1986). The World Food Summit, convened in 1996 and in 2002 by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in Rome, highlighted the basic right of all people to an adequate diet and need for concerted action among all countries to achieve this goal in a sustainable manner. How vulnerable households, regions and countries are to climate change's impacts on agriculture will depend on their access to land, water, and government support and action.

Since the late 1950s, global agricultural output has increased at rates and to levels that are unprecedented in human history. Much of the productivity increase is attributed to the breeding of high-yielding crop varieties, intensive use of inorganic fertilizers and pesticides, expansion of irrigation, and capital-intensive farm management.

In the 1970s, the euphoria surrounding the 'Green Revolution' was questioned in the wake of the energy crisis and growing awareness of long-term environmental consequences. Concern over soil erosion, groundwater contamination, soil compaction and decline of natural soil fertility, and destruction of traditional social systems, led to a reappraisal of what were then considered to be the most advanced agricultural production techniques. Since then, agricultural research has expanded its scope to include sustainable and resource-efficient cropping systems and farm management practices.

Since the beginning of the 1980s yet another threat to agriculture has attracted much attention. Many climatologists predict significant global warming in the coming decades due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide and other trace gases. As a consequence, major changes in hydrological regimes have also been forecast to occur. The magnitude and geographical distribution of such climate-induced changes may affect our ability to expand food production as required to feed a population of more than 10 000 million people projected for the middle of the next century. Climate change could have far-reaching effects on patterns of trade among nations, development, and food security.

Beyond what is known about greenhouse gases and the climate system, however, lie great uncertainties: How much warming will occur, at what rate, and according to what geographical and seasonal pattern? What secondary processes will the warming trend induce, and what might be the physical and biological impacts of such processes? Will some areas benefit while other areas suffer, and who might the winners and losers be? And, if such damages are unavoidable, what can be done to adapt or modify our systems so as to minimize or overcome them? These are important and complex questions, and we have only begun to understand them and to develop methods for their analysis.

Scenarios of climate change were developed in order to estimate their effects on crop yields and food trade. A climate change scenario is defined as a physically consistent set of changes in meteorological variables, based on generally accepted projections of CO2 (and other trace gases) levels. The range of scenarios analysed is intended to capture the range of possible effects and to set limits on the associated uncertainty.

The effects on crop yields in mid- and high-latitude regions appear to be positive or less adverse than those in low-latitude regions, provided the potentially beneficial direct physiological effects of CO2 on crop growth can be fully realized. From a development perspective, the most serious concern relates to the apparent difference in incremental yield impacts between developed and developing countries. The scenario results suggest that if climatic change were to retard economic development beyond the direct effects on agriculture in the poorer regions, especially in Africa, then overall impacts could be sizeable.

In all climate change scenarios, relative productivity of agriculture changes in favour of developed countries, with implications on resource allocation. Economic feedback mechanisms are likely to emphasize and accentuate the uneven distribution of climate change impacts across the world, resulting in net gains for developed countries.

The worst situation arises from a scenario of severe climate change, low economic growth, continuing large population increases, and little farm-level adaptation. In order to minimize possible adverse consequences, like production losses, food price increases, environmental stresses, and an increase in the number of people at risk of hunger, the way forward is to encourage the agricultural sector to continue to develop crop breeding and management programmes for heat and drought conditions, in combination with measures taken to preserve the environment, to use resources more efficiently, and to slow the growth of the human population of the world. The latter step would also be consistent with efforts to slow emissions of greenhouse gases, and thus the rate and eventual magnitude of global climate change.

Countries in the temperate zone may reap some benefits from climate change, many countries in the tropical and subtropical zones appear to be more vulnerable. Particular hazards are the possibly increased flooding of low-lying areas, the increased frequency and severity of droughts in semi-arid areas, and potential decreases in attainable crop yields. It happens that the latter countries tend to be the poorest and the least able to make the necessary economic adjustments. Much of the expected change in global climate is due to the past and present activities of the industrial countries; so it is their responsibility to commit themselves to, and to play an active role in, a comprehensive international effort to prepare for the likely consequences.

Climate change impact potentially significant for future agricultural production is soil organic matter loss due to soil warming. Considering the vulnerability of agricultural production to the occurrence of climate extremes, research should be directed to determine what are the heat-tolerance limits of currently grown and of alternative crops and varieties. At what threshold values of air or soil temperature do severe problems begin? What agronomic methods are the best to moderate the thermal regime affecting crop growth?

Modification of agronomic practices, adoption of crops known to be heat-resistant and drought-resistant, increased efficiency of irrigation and water conservation, and improved pest management. Such adjustments are worthy of being implemented in any case, be it with or without climatic change.

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