Thursday, August 28, 2008

Hurricane Record

A hurricane is a type of tropical cyclone, which is a generic term for a low pressure system that generally forms in the tropics. The cyclone is accompanied by thunderstorms and, in the Northern Hemisphere, a counterclockwise circulation of winds near the earth's surface. Tropical cyclones are classified as follows:


Tropical Depression
An organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 38 mph (33 kt) or less. Sustained winds are a 1-minute average wind measured at about 33 ft (10 meters) above the surface. While 1 knot = 1 nautical mile per hour or 1.15 statute miles per hour and is abbreviated as "kt".

Tropical Storm
An organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph (34-63 kt).

Hurricane
An intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 74 mph (64 kt) or higher.

Hurricanes are categorized according to the strength of their winds using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. A Category 1 storm has the lowest wind speeds, while a Category 5 hurricane has the strongest. These are relative terms, because lower category storms can sometimes inflict greater damage than higher category storms, depending on where they strike and the particular hazards they bring. In fact, tropical storms can also produce significant damage and loss of life, mainly due to flooding.

The Summary for Policymakers in the 2007 United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states “There is observational evidence for an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea surface temperatures. There are also suggestions of increased intense tropical cyclone activity in some other regions where concerns over data quality are greater. Multi-decadal variability and the quality of the tropical cyclone records prior to routine satellite observations in about 1970 complicate the detection of long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity.

The detection of trends in tropical cyclone activity is complicated by the lack of long-term records. Don’t look now, but an article has appeared in the prestigious journal Nature entitled “Intense hurricane activity over the past 5,000 years controlled by El Niño and the West African monsoon.” The title suggests that someone has a 5,000 year record of hurricane activity and that the activity is controlled by El Niño and weather in West Africa – there is no suggestion that hurricane activity is controlled by greenhouse gases, planetary temperature, or sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic.

Jeffrey Donnelly and Jonathan Woodruff of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts begin their article noting that “At present there is significant debate about the cause of observed multi-decadal variability of hurricanes in the North Atlantic. To detect long-term patterns in tropical cyclone activity, reliable proxy reconstructions that extend back before the instrumental record are needed.” Finding proxy records of intense hurricane activity requires some imagination and some help from Mother Earth, and the pair found exactly what is needed on Puerto Rico’s island of Vieques.

Imagine a nice tropical beach backed by a vegetated barrier ridge about 10 feet tall. Behind the ridge is a back-barrier lagoon that over time becomes a playa that is only periodically under water. During large hurricane events, which are common in Puerto Rico, the ridge is breached and a large amount of material is deposited on the playa. Donnelly and Woodruff extracted cores from the playa, and they note that “Cores collected from the site contain several metres of organic-rich silt interbedded with coarse-grained event layers comprised of a mixture of siliciclastic sand and calcium carbonate shells and shell fragments. These layers are the result of marine flooding events overtopping or breaching the barrier and transporting these barrier and nearshore sediments into the lagoon.” Organic material can be dated, and just like magic, a long-term record of intense hurricane activity is produced.

The pair finds that “On the basis of our age model an interval of relatively frequent intense hurricane strikes at Vieques is evident between 5,400 and 3,600 calendar years before present (yr BP, where present is defined as 1950 AD by convention), with the exception of a short-lived quiescent interval between approximately 4,900 and 5,050 yr BP. Following this relatively active period is an interval of relatively few extreme coastal flooding events persisting from 3,600 until roughly 2,500 yr BP. Evidence of another relatively active interval of intense hurricane strikes is evident between 2,500 and approximately 1,000 yr BP. The interval from 1,000 to 250 yr BP was relatively quiescent with evidence of only one prominent event occurring around 500 yr BP. A relatively active regime has resumed since about 250 yr BP (1700 AD).”

With respect to the linkage between higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and hurricane activity, the pair notes that “Given the increase of intense hurricane landfalls during the later half of the Little Ice Age, tropical SSTs as warm as at present are apparently not a requisite condition for increased intense hurricane activity. In addition, the Caribbean experienced a relatively active interval of intense hurricanes for more than a millennium when local SSTs were on average cooler than modern.” They found that hurricane activity over the past 5,000 years has been modulated by the El Niño / La Niña cycle and the strength of the West African monsoon, not by the sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and certainly not by global temperatures.

Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Records
Earliest tropical storm formed: Subtropical Storm One, January 18, 1978, through January 23, 1978, 45 mph. Excluding this subtropical storm, the Groundhog Day Tropical Storm of 1952 February 2, 1952-February 3, 1952 with 50 mph winds was the earliest formed in a calendar year.

Earliest Hurricane formed in a calendar year: March 6, 1908 Hurricane

Earliest Category 3+ hurricane : Hurricane Able, May 15, 1951 (In May/June 1825 there was a major hurricane also, but there is less information available about it due to the records of the time.)

Earliest hurricane in existence in a calendar year: Hurricane Alice, January 1-6, 80mpg 1955 (and December 31, 1954), formed the previous year. The earliest tropical storm was Tropical Storm Zeta in 2005-2006 (see below)

Latest tropical storm formed: Tropical Storm Zeta, 11am AST, December 30, 2005. Previous, Hurricane Alice 1am EST, December 30, 1954.

Latest hurricane formed: Hurricane Alice 1am EST, December 30, 1954. The only two cross-season storms on record are Hurricane Alice in 1954-1955 and Tropical Storm Zeta 2005-2006 (See below).

Latest hurricane in existence from previous year: Hurricane Alice, 1954-1955, January 6, 1955 (see Tropical Storm Zeta, January 6, 2006 for the latest Tropical Storm in existence)

Strongest (most intense) hurricane: Hurricane Wilma 2005, 882 millibars (mb) (the previous most intense hurricane was Hurricane Gilbert 1988 at 888 mb)

Strongest land-falling United States Hurricane: Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, 160mph 892 mbar

Longest lived hurricane :Hurricane San Ciriaco, August 1899 (28 days), Hurricane Ginger September 1971 (27.25 days), Hurricane Inga September 1969, 24.75 days, Hurricane Kyle September 2002, 22 days, Hurricane Carrie, September 1957 & Hurricane Inez September 1966 (20.75 days).

Longest Category 5 hurricane: Hurricane Allen, 1980, reached Category 5 status on 3 occasions (Ivan and Isabel did the same, but Allen lasted longer). Hurricane Dog 1950 2.50 days; Hurricane Isabel 2003, Hurricane David 1979, Hurricane Mitch 1998 all 1.75 days.

Most storms per season: 28 in 2005 season (revised upward by 1 April 2006) (previous: 21 named storms in 1933).

Fewest storms per season (since 1965): 1983 4 storms; 1965, 1977, 1982, 1986, 6 storms; 1972, 1987, 1992, 1994, 7 storms

What happens if they run out of names? The Greek alphabet is used: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, eta, theta,iota, kappa, lambda, mu, nu xi, omikron, pi, rho, sigma,tau,upsilon,phi, chi, psi, omega.

When do they start with the following season's names? January 1 of the year, not June 1st when the Atlantic hurricane season begins or May 15th for the Pacific hurricane season. However storms that overlap from one calendar year into another are not renamed.

Strongest January hurricane: Hurricane Alice, January 1955, 80 mph winds (peak January 2, 1955) (The naming is a story in itself since it became a tropical storm Dec 30, 1954 but advisories weren't issued until January 1955, so it was given the name Alice, which made it the second Alice for 1954 - at that time names were re-used each year), December 30, 1954-January 6, 1955. Tropical Storm Zeta December 30, 2005-January 6, 2006. Subtropical
Storm One, January 18, 1978 45 mph winds is the only storm formed in January.

Strongest February tropical storm: Groundhog Day Storm of 1952 February 2, 1952-February 3, 1952, 50 mph

Strongest March hurricane: March 6, 1908 Hurricane, category 2 storm.

Strongest April tropical storm: Ana 2003 (the only April storm in fact), April 20-April 24, 60 mph winds, 994 mb

Strongest May hurricane:Hurricane Able 1951 (Category 3), 1908 Hurricane (Category ?), Alma 1970 (Cat 1), Tropical Storm 1933, May 15, 1887 (70mph) & May 17, 1887 (60 mph), earliest two storms active at once. Tropical Storm One, May 22, 1948 (50mph). Tropical Storm One, May 19, 1940.

Strongest June hurricane: Hurricane Audrey, June 25-29, 1957 (145mph, 946 mbar) (see also Alma 1966, 130 mph, 970 mbar and Agnes June 14-25, 1972 did a lot of damage, 85mph, 977 mbar)

Strongest July hurricane: Emily, 2005 (161 mph top sustained winds - earliest recorded category 5 hurricane) (previous record: Dennis (150 mph) 2005; Hurricane #1 (140 mph) in 1926.

Strongest August hurricane: Allen 1980 899 mbar, 190 mph (see also Katrina, 2005 175 mph sustained winds, 902 mbar; Hurricane Camille, August 1969, 190 mph, 905 mbar; Andrew, August 1992, 175mph, 922 mbar)

Strongest September hurricane: Gilbert, 185 mph, 888 mbar, (see Rita, 2005 175 mph, 897 mbar; Hurricane Janet, 1955, 175mph 914 mb)

Strongest October hurricane: Wilma 2005, 175 mph, 882 mbar. Wilma became the most intense hurricane in the Atlantic Basin ever recorded.

Strongest November hurricane: Lenny, 1999, November 13-23. 155 mph, 933 mbar. Also notable for its eastward motion. Tied with Michelle in 2001 based on central pressure of 933 mbar, 140 mph wind.

Strongest December hurricane: 1925 Hurricane, December 4, 1925, (100mph); see Hurricane Epsilon 2005 , 85mph, 979 mbar and Hurricane Nicole of 1998 85mph; see also Hurricane Lili 1984 80mph. Hurricane Epsilon 2005 is the longest lasting December storm.
Season with most hurricanes: 2005 with 15 Hurricanes (previous record: 12 in 1969)

Most major hurricanes hitting the U.S.: 4 in 2005 (previous record: three in 2004). Major hurricanes are category 3+.

Most tornadoes spawned: Hurricane Frances, 2004 (123), Hurricane Ivan 2004 (117), Hurricane Beulah 1967, (115), Hurricane Katrina 2005 (30). Hurricane Andrew also was notable for its tornados in the South Miami area.

Most Category 5 Hurricanes in one season: 4 in 2005 (Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma) (previous record: two in 1960 and 1961)

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